Convergencia entre las economías de México y EUA

This work analyzes the process of convergence of the per capita incomes of Mexico and the USA from 1954 to 2008. It was found a point of rupture occurring in this process in the last quarter of 1982. It is analyzed the gap between the levels of their per capita incomes and find that it was significantly greater during the period 1983-2008 than in the period 1954-1982. It is then analyzed the process of convergence to see if the variables are co-integrated and to verify the stability of the parameters. It was found that two distinct periods of co-integration occurred from 1954 to 2008; the first period, from 1954 to 1982, and the second, from 1992 to 2008. During the period 1954-1982, a process of absolute convergence occurred, with the Mexican per capita income being in the process of “catching up” with the American. During the latter period, 1992 - 2008, we find co-integration and stability in the parameters, which indicates a stable, but incomplete, convergence taking place at lower levels compared with the convergence registered during the first period. The paper also provides an interpretation of these results with the intention to stimulate the debate about the causes and solutions to the Mexican economic stagnation.