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Terrorism, war, and global air traffic

Author

Listed:
  • Jurgen Brauer

    (Augusta State University)

  • J. Paul Dunne

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

It is thought that one of the affected industries of the 9/11 terror event was the global airline industry through the attack's effects on global air traffic demand for international, scheduled flights. Using data from the International Civil Aviation Organization, this article considers whether this was indeed the case. The study applies panel data analysis, focusing on the 20 largest airline companies. We find that when one takes account of potential confounding factors such as the general state of the economy, global air traffic was not greatly affected by the general level of terrorist attacks worldwide, and that it takes a truly exceptional event such as 9/11 to find a measurable impact on air traffic demand. Even then, the measured effect for the industry as a whole is small in magnitude. The reason for this finding appears to be that the demand for international scheduled air flights is rather heterogeneous across airlines. Aggregating across the whole of the global industry is not in all instances warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurgen Brauer & J. Paul Dunne, 2012. "Terrorism, war, and global air traffic," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 22-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:7:y:2012:i:1:p:22-29
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    File URL: http://www.epsjournal.org.uk/index.php/EPSJ/article/view/135
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terror; war; air traffic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

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