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Érase una vez un efecto Trump. Información en Internet y el tipo de cambio/Once upon a time there was a Trump effect. Internet information and the exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Ibarra López

    (Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey)

  • Jorge David Cortés Moreno

    (Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla - Instituto de Ciencias de Gobierno y Desarrollo Estratégico)

Abstract

Utilizando datos oficiales (Banco de México, INEGI) e información de gran escala proveniente de internet (Google Trends, Twitter), se utiliza un modelo VAR y pruebas de causalidad de Granger para modelar el comportamiento del tipo de cambio peso/dólar (MXN/USD). La popularidad en Internet de Trump, en conjunto con mensajes en Twitter conectados con la relación entre México y Estados Unidos, generaron un sentimiento de preocupación que se reflejó en el tipo de cambio, al menos en el corto plazo. El aprendizaje derivado de estos hallazgos es que la información que se genera en redes sociales permite conocer el comportamiento de variables fundamentales para la economía.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Ibarra López & Jorge David Cortés Moreno, 2021. "Érase una vez un efecto Trump. Información en Internet y el tipo de cambio/Once upon a time there was a Trump effect. Internet information and the exchange rate," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 36(2), pages 363-398.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:36:y:2021:i:2:p:363-398
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    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/423
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trump; Big Data; tipo de cambio; Twitter; TLCAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other

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