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Can energy commodities affect energy blockchain-based cryptos?

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  • Ikhlaas Gurrib

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to shed fresh light into whether an energy commodity price index (ENFX) and energy blockchain-based crypto price index (ENCX) can be used to predict movements in the energy commodity and energy crypto market. Design/methodology/approach - Using principal component analysis over daily data of crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and energy based cryptos, the ENFX and ENCX indices are constructed, where ENFX (ENCX) represents 94% (88%) of variability in energy commodity (energy crypto) prices. Findings - Natural gas price movements were better explained by ENCX, and shared positive (negative) correlations with cryptos (crude oil and heating oil). Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR), while the 1-day lagged ENCX (ENFX) was significant in estimating current ENCX (ENFX) values, only lagged ENCX was significant in estimating current ENFX. Granger causality tests confirmed the two markets do not granger cause each other. One standard deviation shock in ENFX had a negative effect on ENCX. Weak forecasting results of the VAR model, support the two markets are not robust forecasters of each other. Robustness wise, the VAR model ranked lower than an autoregressive model, but higher than a random walk model. Research limitations/implications - Significant structural breaks at distinct dates in the two markets reinforce that the two markets do not help to predict each other. The findings are limited by the existence of bubbles (December 2017-January 2018) which were witnessed in energy blockchain-based crypto markets and natural gas, but not in crude oil and heating oil. Originality/value - As per the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to analyze the relationship between leading energy commodities and energy blockchain-based crypto markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2019. "Can energy commodities affect energy blockchain-based cryptos?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 682-699, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-10-2018-0313
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-10-2018-0313
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Mohammad Nourani & Rajesh Kumar Bhaskaran, 2022. "Energy crypto currencies and leading U.S. energy stock prices: are Fibonacci retracements profitable?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Wu, Chang-Che & Ho, Shu-Ling & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2022. "The determinants of Bitcoin returns and volatility: Perspectives on global and national economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Qian Long Kweh & Davide Contu & Firuz Kamalov, 2021. "COVID-19, Short-selling Ban and Energy Stock Prices," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    4. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Elgilani Elshareif, 2021. "Can the Leading US Energy Stock Prices be Predicted using the Ichimoku Cloud?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 41-51.
    5. Popkova, Elena G. & Bogoviz, Aleksei V. & Lobova, Svetlana V. & DeLo, Piper & Alekseev, Alexander N. & Sergi, Bruno S., 2023. "Environmentally sustainable policies in the petroleum sector through the lens of industry 4.0. Russians Lukoil and Gazprom: The COVID-19 crisis of 2020 vs sanctions crisis of 2022," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural break; VAR; Impulse response; Energy commodity; Energy crypto currencies; Q02; Q41; Q42; Q47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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