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The dynamic linkage between exchange rate, stock price and interest rate in India

Author

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  • Malepati Jayashankar
  • Badri Narayan Rath

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate for India. Design/methodology/approach - Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014, this study has scrutinized the linkage between exchange rate, stock return and interest rate using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) which is very much appropriate when the variables are discrete in nature. Findings - Our major findings indicate that the empirical relationship between these variables is not significant at lower scales. As we go on higher scales, there is a clear linkage between them, and three markets are associated with each other. Moreover, the direction and type of the relationship depends on the frequency bands, and finally with the help of Granger causality tests, we established a lead/lag relationship between stock price, exchange rate and interest rate. Research limitations/implications - The linkage between stock market, foreign exchange market and money market in case of emerging countries like India is more relevant because negative or positive shocks affecting one market may be transmitted quickly to another through contagious effect. Originality/value - Little attention has been given to examine the link between stock return, exchange rate and interest rate in India. This study adopts a more sophisticated MODWT approach for examining the cross-correlation and causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Malepati Jayashankar & Badri Narayan Rath, 2017. "The dynamic linkage between exchange rate, stock price and interest rate in India," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 383-406, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-02-2016-0043
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-02-2016-0043
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sushil Kumar Rai & Akhilesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In India Under Univariate And Multivariate Analysis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 175-190, March.
    2. Zeng, Ting & Yang, Mengying & Shen, Yifan, 2020. "Fancy Bitcoin and conventional financial assets: Measuring market integration based on connectedness networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 209-220.
    3. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2019. "Influence of Real Exchange Rate on the Finance-Growth Nexus in the West African Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ibrahim D. Raheem & Seref Bozoklu & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2022. "The Oil Price‐Macroeconomic fundamentals nexus for emerging market economies: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1569-1590, January.
    5. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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