Asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 on the Moroccan stock exchange

Purpose - This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market returns of companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach - To achieve this objective, we utilized the SymCovid series, which comprises two sub-series: one representing the deterioration of the pandemic situation (NEG) and the other representing the improvement of the pandemic situation (POS). We employed the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, incorporating Bounds Testing as proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaranet al. (2001), to explore the asymmetry of the pandemic’s impact on stock prices listed on the Casablanca stock exchange. Findings - Our analysis using the NARDL econometric model reveals an asymmetric effect of COVID-19 on stock prices. Notably, we observe that stock prices react more strongly to a worsening pandemic situation than to an improvement, on average. Furthermore, our main findings indicate that while the improvement in the pandemic situation has no significant long-term impact on stock prices, it does exhibit a significant positive effect in the short term. Conversely, the deterioration in the pandemic situation has a more pronounced negative effect on stock prices in the long term than the short term. Originality/value - Our study fills a gap in the existing literature by focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the context of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, which has been relatively understudied compared to other regions such as Asia, Europe and the Americas. We go beyond previous research by examining whether stock returns exhibit asymmetric responses to changes in the pandemic situation, highlighting potentially unique dynamics in emerging market economies during crises and providing valuable information for investors, policymakers and researchers.