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Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Spectral answers

Author

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  • Pierre Rostan
  • Alexandra Rostan

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Design/methodology/approach - The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits apth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Findings - Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model. Originality/value - Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan, 2018. "Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Spectral answers," PSU Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(3), pages 189-205, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:prrpps:prr-12-2017-0045
    DOI: 10.1108/PRR-12-2017-0045
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan, 2023. "The benefit of the Covid‐19 pandemic on global temperature projections," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2079-2098, December.
    2. Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan, 2024. "How Australia's economy gained momentum because of Covid‐19," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 36-58, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spectral analysis; Wavelet analysis; Burg model; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s population; Pension system; Population projection; C53; J11; J26;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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