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Directional predictability and volatility spillover effect from stock market indexes to Bitcoin: evidence from developed and emerging markets

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  • Imen Omri

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to quantify the volatility spillover impact and the directional predictability from stock market indexes to Bitcoin. Design/methodology/approach - Daily data of 15 developed and 15 emerging stock markets are used for the period March 2017–December 2021.; The author uses vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test and impulse response function (IRF) to estimate the results of the study. Findings - Empirical results show a significant unidirectional volatility spillover impact from emerging markets to Bitcoin and only six stock markets are powerful predictors of Bitcoin return in the short term. Additionally, there is no a difference between developed and developing markets regarding the directional predictability however there is difference in the reaction of Bitcoin return to shocks in the emerging markets compared to developed ones. Originality/value - The paper proposes different econometric techniques from prior research and presents a comparative analysis between developed and emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Imen Omri, 2023. "Directional predictability and volatility spillover effect from stock market indexes to Bitcoin: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 226-243, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:jrf-06-2022-0130
    DOI: 10.1108/JRF-06-2022-0130
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Haiyan & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Xie, Xin, 2023. "Climate change and blue returns: Evidence from Niche firms in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Bejaoui, Azza & Frikha, Wajdi & Jeribi, Ahmed & Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2023. "Connectedness between emerging stock markets, gold, cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFT: Some new evidence from wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    3. Rahat, Birjees & Nguyen, Pascal, 2023. "Does ESG performance impact credit portfolios? Evidence from lending to mineral resource firms in emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Nguyen, An Pham Ngoc & Mai, Tai Tan & Bezbradica, Marija & Crane, Martin, 2023. "Volatility and returns connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: Insights from graph-based methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    5. Mei-jun, Ling & Guang-xi, Cao, 2024. "Dynamics of asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations between cryptocurrencies and global stock markets: Role of gold and portfolio implications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Peng, Lijuan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Sustainable development during the post-COVID-19 period: Role of crude oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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