IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jrfpps/15265941211203161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long term versus warm phase, part I: hurricane frequency analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Siamak Daneshvaran
  • Maryam Haji

Abstract

Purpose - By reviewing recent literature, it is noticeable that considerable attention has been given to the relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the USA. However, less research has been done regarding landfall frequency and identifying spatial areas that are statistically more likely to produce landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better prediction method for US landfalling hurricanes. Design/methodology/approach - This work is based on the hypothesis that landfall variations along the US coast can be better explained in terms of hurricane origination points over more susceptible areas on the North Atlantic Ocean. Simulation techniques are used to spatially quantify the landfall probability. Findings - Results indicate the existence of a landfall corridor in the Atlantic Basin, which explains some of the variances observed in the landfall process. Two different hypotheses of climate are examined. A long‐term assumption is based on the historical data from 1940 to 2010. The second assumption is based on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Since 1995, we are in a warm phase and we assume that sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long‐term average over the next several years. Results indicate that the average increase on landfall frequency is about 13 per cent. Originality/value - This paper is the first paper that introduces the concept of landfall origination corridor. It spatially identifies the differences between long term and warm phase of the atmosphere in terms of US landfall occurrence using hurricane origination points.

Suggested Citation

  • Siamak Daneshvaran & Maryam Haji, 2012. "Long term versus warm phase, part I: hurricane frequency analysis," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 100-117, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:15265941211203161
    DOI: 10.1108/15265941211203161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/15265941211203161/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/15265941211203161/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/15265941211203161?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:15265941211203161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.