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Binomial option pricing models for real estate development

Author

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  • Jianfu Shen
  • Frederik Pretorius

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and financial constraints in the model. It extends the application of real option theory from the framework borrowed from financial option pricing, and considers the case where a development company has restrictions from outside environment and financial constraint. It explores the effects of these additional practical factors on real asset project value and development timing. This paper makes contributions to bridge the theoretical models and practical applications. Design/methodology/approach - Real estate development is modelled in the binomial option pricing framework with the considerations of time‐to‐build, foregone rent if delaying, institutional environment and capital budgeting. The investment timings are derived from the models and sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the effects of these factors. Findings - Apart from the factors in traditional option pricing theory, this paper confirms that the contractual covenants, positive synergies between properties and financial status of the firm, which enhance or restrict real flexibility embedded in the development land, influence project value and investment timing. Numerical examples illustrate the effects of these factors. It is argued that the valuation of real options should place emphasis on industry‐specific characteristics and start from the perspective of the firm rather than individual options. Practical implications - The models constructed in this paper and the results can be directly used in the practical real estate development. Originality/value - This paper incorporates many practical factors in real estate development which are not investigated in previous studies. It values the option project from the firm perspective rather than project perspective as previous studies. It also shows the effects of institutional arrangement and firm factors on project value and development timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius, 2013. "Binomial option pricing models for real estate development," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(5), pages 418-440, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:31:y:2013:i:5:p:418-440
    DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-10-2012-0046
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    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    2. Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius & Xin Li, 2019. "Does Joint Bidding Reduce Competition? Evidence from Hong Kong Land Auctions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 111-132, January.
    3. Lu, Chien-Lin & Liao, Wen-Chi & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2020. "Developers’ perspectives on timing to build: Evidence from microdata of land acquisition and development," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Marek Durica & Danuse Guttenova & Ludovit Pinda & Lucia Svabova, 2018. "Sustainable Value of Investment in Real Estate: Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Yung Yau & Tin Choi Cheung, 2021. "Revisiting the Concept of the Property State: Private Landowners and Suburban Development in Hong Kong," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 80(2), pages 427-464, March.
    6. Sheen Low & Fahim Ullah & Sara Shirowzhan & Samad M. E. Sepasgozar & Chyi Lin Lee, 2020. "Smart Digital Marketing Capabilities for Sustainable Property Development: A Case of Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-40, July.
    7. Jenny Jing Wang & Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius, 2023. "Valuing options to renew at future market value: the case of commercial property leases," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, December.
    8. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    9. Kwabena Mintah, 2018. "Real Options Analysis in Residential Property Development Decision-Making in Australia: Perspective of Executives," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 473-520.
    10. Jianfu Shen & Frederik Pretorius & K. W. Chau, 2018. "Land Auctions with Budget Constraints," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 443-471, April.

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