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Extreme returns and value at risk in international securitized real estate markets

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  • Kim Hiang Liow

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the extreme behavior of securitized real estate and stock market returns as well as their value‐at‐risk (VaR) dynamics in international investing. Extreme value theory using the block maxima method is applied to ten securitized real estate and equity market indices representing Asian, European and North American markets. Design/methodology/approach - The paper models the maxima and minima of all return series within the extreme value theory (EVT) framework and derive the VaR estimates. It then compares the VaR estimates derived from the EVT and the normal distribution and investigates the impact of clustered returns on the VaR estimates. Finally, both the conventional standard deviation measure and VaR method are conducted to evaluate and compare the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the real estate and stock market risk profiles. Findings - Evidence shows that Asian real estate and equity maxima and minima return series are characterized by a fat‐tailed Fréchet distribution. The frequency and severity of extreme Asian real estate returns are greater than their European and North American counterparts. Securitized real estate markets are riskier than the broader stock markets before and during the Asian financial turmoil. In contrast, many stock markets become riskier after the financial crisis with their VaRs higher than the equivalent VaR estimates for the real estate series. Research limitations/implications - Knowledge about real estate market returns exhibit extreme behavior can help investors and fund managers understand the distribution of real estate market returns better and obtain potentially more accurate real estate return forecasts. Practical implications - International real estate portfolio risk management should include both extreme risks and standard deviations. Accordingly, global investors should be even more cautious in formulating their diversification strategies since gains from diversification can be reduced significantly by the severity of extreme return levels. Originality/value - The paper characterizes the distribution of extreme returns for a broad spectrum of international securitized real estate markets from three continents. The extreme value investigation is also conducted for broader stock markets corresponding to the individual real estate markets. The July 1997 turmoil that occurred in Asian financial markets provides interesting exploratory opportunities within which this paper estimates and compares the extreme market risk with the conventional standard deviation measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Hiang Liow, 2008. "Extreme returns and value at risk in international securitized real estate markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(5), pages 418-446, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:26:y:2008:i:5:p:418-446
    DOI: 10.1108/14635780810900279
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy, 2018. "Ex-ante real estate Value at Risk calculation method," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 257-285, March.
    2. Zouheir Mighri & Raouf Jaziri, 2023. "Long-Memory, Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 41-97, March.
    3. Razali Muhammad Najib & Jalil Rohaya Abdul & Shayuti Ahmad Faisal, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Outbreaks on Malaysian Listed Property Companies in Mixed-Asset Portfolios," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 87-93, September.
    4. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    5. Jian Zhou & Randy Anderson, 2012. "Extreme Risk Measures for International REIT Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 152-170, June.
    6. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Donald Keenan, 2015. "Cornish-Fisher Expansion for Commercial Real Estate Value at Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 439-464, May.
    7. Charles-Olivier Amedee-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy, 2012. "Cornish-Fisher expansion for real estate value at risk," ERES eres2012_044, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2015. "The Sources of Risk Spillovers among U.S. REITs: Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 67-100, March.
    9. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent & Donald Keenan & Mahdi Mokrane, 2017. "Modified Sharpe Ratios in Real Estate Performance Measurement: Beyond the Standard Cornish Fisher Expansion," THEMA Working Papers 2017-20, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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