A comparative computational and behavioral analysis of real estate performance

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment that can influence agent responses. Design/methodology/approach - The analytical design uses a comparative computational experiment to address the performance of property assets in the current market based on comparison with prior structural patterns. The latent variables developed across market sectors are used to test agent behavior contingent on the perspectives of capital asset pricing conditionals (CAPM) and a behavioral momentum/herd construct. The state-space momentum analysis can assist the comparative analysis of current levels and shifts in property asset performance given the issues that have arisen with the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Findings - An analytic approach is employed framed by a situation-dependent model. This frame considers risk profiles characterizing the perspectives and preferences guiding a delineated market state. This perspective is concerned with the possibility of shifts in market momentum and representativeness conditioning investor expectations. It is observed that the current market (post-crisis) has changed significantly from the prior operations (despite the diversity observed in prior market states). The dynamics of initial findings required an additional test anchored to the performance of the general capital market and the real economy across time. This context supports the use of a modified CAPM model allowing the consideration of opportunity cost in a space-time dynamic anchored with the consideration of equity, debt, riskless asset and liquidity options as they varied for the representative agents operating per market state. Research limitations/implications - This paper integrates neoclassical and behavioral economic constructs. Combines asset pricing with prospect theory and allows the calculation of endogenous time-preferences, risk attitudes and formulation and testing of hyperbolic discounting functions. Practical implications - The research shows that market structure and agent behavior since the financial crisis has changed from the investment and valuation perspectives operating as observed and measured from 1970 up to 2007. In contradiction to the long-term findings of Reinhart and Rogoff (2008), but in compliance with common perspectives and decision heuristics often employed by investors, this time things have changed! Discounting and expected rates of return are dynamic and are hyperbolic and not constant. Returns and investment for property assets are situational (market state-space specific) and offer a distinct asset class, not appropriately estimated by many of the traditional financial models. Social implications - Assist in supporting insights to measure in errors and equations that result in inefficient resource allocation and beta discounting that supports the financial crisis created by assets subject to long-term decision needs (delta function). Originality/value - The paper offers a combination and comparison of neoclassic asset pricing using a modified CAPM (two-pass) approach within the structural frame ofKahneman and Tversky’s (1979)prospect theory. This technique allows the consideration of the effects of present bias, beta-delta functions and the operation of the Allais Paradox in market states that are characterized by gains and losses and thus risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. This ability for differentiation allows for the development of endogenous time-preferences and hyperbolic discounting factors characteristic of commercial property investment.