The impact of decentralized finance development on banks deposits variability: PVAR approach

Purpose - This study aims to investigate the potential impact of total value locked (TVL) fluctuation in decentralized finance (DeFi) on banks deposits for a sample of 21 countries, including the Eurozone members and the USA, over the period from July 2018 to October 2023. Design/methodology/approach - Panel vector autoregression model has been used to analyze the existence of a relationship between TVL and banks deposits. In the second stage, the impulse response function has been exercised to find out the response of banks deposits among each nation. Findings - Empirical findings exhibit that while increases in TVL have a significant negative long-run association with banks deposits in a global perspective, the effect is weak, suggesting modest disruption to traditional banking services to date. However, the impact varies between short and long-run effects at the country level. Six nations exhibit substantial negative long-run effects, whereas eight countries experience only temporary decreases in deposits following TVL upticks that rebound over time, reflecting the lack of trust in DeFi services and the engagement in speculative instead of long-term activities. Research limitations/implications - This study provides general insights into DeFi’s impact on banking performance and deposit stability. However, it likely has limitations in scope and time frame. Future research could explore long-term effects, specific DeFi protocols and cross-country comparisons. Practical implications - This study’s findings provide key insights for policymakers, central banks and bank managers on the impact of DeFi growth on banking performance and deposit stability. The results highlight the need for adaptive regulatory frameworks and investment strategies to address the emerging DeFi ecosystem. At the country level, the observed variations suggest the importance of tailored policy approaches. These insights are crucial for developing effective regulations and strategies in the evolving financial landscape. Social implications - DeFi growth may alter financial access and inclusion, raising concerns about consumer protection and literacy. It could shift power dynamics in finance, potentially reducing traditional intermediaries’ influence while creating new forms of inequality. Balancing innovation with social responsibility is crucial for equitable distribution of benefits. Originality/value - Although numerous studies have been conducted on the effects of cryptocurrencies on bank deposits and stock performance across various regions, they have largely overlooked the DeFi and its role in influencing deposits as a new competitor to traditional banks services. This study aims to address this gap by examining the influence of TVL developments on banks deposits, and to what extent it can be served as an alternative to banking services.