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Economic policy uncertainty, market returns and expected return predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick A. Adjei
  • Mavis Adjei

Abstract

Purpose - Using the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index as a proxy for the level of EPU, we study the impact of the level of EPU on the conditional mean of market returns and we examine the predictive power of EPU on future market returns. Design/methodology/approach - We employ a GARCH-in-Mean model with exogenous variables. Findings - The results show that even after controlling for business cycle effects, EPU is inversely related to contemporaneous market returns. Particularly, the authors find that the negative impact of EPU subsists only during recessions or recessionary states of the economy, and has no discernible effects during expansionary periods. Originality/value - This is the first study to examine the predictive power of EPU on future market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick A. Adjei & Mavis Adjei, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty, market returns and expected return predictability," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(3), pages 242-259, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-11-2016-0074
    DOI: 10.1108/JFEP-11-2016-0074
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lirios Alos-Simo & Antonio J. Verdu-Jover & Jose M. Gomez-Gras, 2020. "Knowledge Transfer in Sustainable Contexts: A Comparative Analysis of Periods of Financial Recession and Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    4. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Garima Goel & Saumya Ranjan Dash & Mário Nuno Mata & António Bento Caleiro & João Xavier Rita & José António Filipe, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Return Momentum," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Michael E Araki & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio C. F. Pinto, 2018. "Carry trades and economic policy uncertainty: measuring the political dimension of the forward rate bias in emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1476-1484.
    8. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Khan, Muhammad Atif & Abdulahi, Mohamued Elyas & Liaqat, Idrees & Shah, Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain, 2019. "Institutional quality and financial development: The United States perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 67-80.
    9. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    10. Muhammad Atif Khan & Muhammad Asif Khan & Kishwar Ali & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Markets; Financial Economics; P43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

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