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Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries

Author

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  • Mourad Mroua
  • Lotfi Trabelsi

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings - Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries Originality/value - The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mourad Mroua & Lotfi Trabelsi, 2020. "Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(50), pages 395-412, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jefasp:jefas-04-2019-0054
    DOI: 10.1108/JEFAS-04-2019-0054
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Sánchez Arévalo, Jorge Luis & Ferreira de Andrade, Alisson Maxwell & de Oliveira Vendramin, Elisabeth, 2023. "Ibovespa’s response to the behavior of oil and ore prices during the international crisis caused by COVID-19," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 15(1), pages 21-43, January.
    3. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    4. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.
    5. Ogunsanya, Ibukun & Wasiu Adamson, Temitope, 2024. "Exchange Rate Movement And Stock Returns In Most Capitalised Economies In Sub-Saharan Africa," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 18-37, June.

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