Red dragon China and small Mauritius' trade links: an in-depth analysis

Purpose - – Two-way trade flows between Africa and China have increased rapidly between 2001 and 2010. Mauritius being a resource-scarce economy has been no stranger to the “China phenomenon”. China is the third largest supplier to the Mauritian market but will soon be competing for first place. Exports to China, on the other hand, have remained marginal. The paper aims to examine the potential impacts of China's spectacular rise on the Mauritian economy through the trade channel. Design/methodology/approach - – The paper draws extensively on secondary data to explain the low export penetration of Mauritian goods on Chinese markets and to examine the impact of Chinese dominance of the global apparel market on Mauritius' clothing exports to third markets. The paper first considers several potential explanations for Mauritius' low levels of exports to China, which are: Mauritius' exports are not competitive enough to penetrate the Chinese market; China does not need to import from Mauritius since it produces all that Mauritius exports; and the Chinese market is relatively closed to Mauritian exports due to high tariffs and other non-tariff barriers. The paper investigates each of the above hypotheses using secondary data from UN COMTRADE. The paper computes a set of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices for Mauritius and China and shows how they have evolved over time. Given the inherent shortcoming of the RCA measure, the paper provides a complementary assessment based on an analysis of cost competitiveness factors. The Export Similarity Index and the Trade Complementarity Index are also computed to test the above hypotheses. Second, using disaggregated data on clothing exports from UN COMTRADE, the paper analyses the product categories where Chinese competition has been most acute. Findings - – In conclusion, the whole body of evidence presented in this study points to bleak prospects for Mauritian exporters to enter the Chinese market in a significant manner. Worse, because most of the causes of this low export penetration are due to systemic factors – such as a lack of trade complementarity, poor export competitiveness, export market bias and an irrational fear of doing business in China – the current situation is unlikely to improve in the future in the absence of bold policy measures. Originality/value - – This is the first study looking at the trade relationship between Mauritius and China.