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Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mantu Kumar Mahalik
  • Debashis Acharya
  • M. Suresh Babu

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets. Design/methodology/approach - – The study has used four futures and spot indices of Multi-Commodity Exchange, Mumbai. The study also employs vector error correction model (VECM) and bivariate exponential Garch model (EGARCH) to analyze the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity market. Findings - – The VECM shows that agriculture future price index (LAGRIFP), energy future price index (LENERGYFP) and aggregate commodity index (LCOMDEXFP) effectively serve the price discovery function in the spot market implying that there is a flow of information from future to spot commodity markets but the reverse causality does not exist. There is no cointegrating relationship between metal future price index (LMETALFP) and metal spot price index (LMETALSP). Besides the bivariate EGARCH model indicates that although the innovations in one market can predict the volatility in another market, the volatility spillovers from future to the spot market are dominant in the case of LENERGY and LCOMDEX index while LAGRISP acts as a source of volatility toward the agri-futures market. Research limitations/implications - – The results are aggregate in nature. Further study at disaggregated level will provide further insights on behavior of specific commodity prices and the price discovery process. Originality/value - – The paper provides useful information about the evolution and structures of futures commodity trading in India, related literature and relevant methodology concerning the hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Debashis Acharya & M. Suresh Babu, 2014. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets," Journal of Advances in Management Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 211-226, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jamrpp:v:11:y:2014:i:2:p:211-226
    DOI: 10.1108/JAMR-09-2012-0039
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    2. P. Sakthivel & Krishna Reddy Chittedi & Daniel Sakyi, 2017. "Price Discovery and Volatility Transmission in Currency Spot and Futures Markets in India: An Empirical Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 931-945, August.
    3. Narjiss Araba & Alain François-Heude, 2019. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the French wheat market," Post-Print hal-03088859, HAL.
    4. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    5. You-How Go & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2019. "Palm oil spot-futures relation: Evidence from unrefined and refined products," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 133-142.
    6. Ramadas, Sendhil & Palanisamy, Ramasundaram & Kuruvila, Anil & Chandrasekaran, Sundaramoorthy & Singh, Randhir & Sharma, Indu, 2014. "Food Price Volatility in India – Drivers, Impact and Policy Response," MPRA Paper 91131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muneer Shaik & Abhiram Kartik Lanka & Gurmeet Singh, 2021. "Analysis of lead-lag relationship and volatility spillover: evidence from Indian agriculture commodity markets," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 258-279.
    8. Raushan Kumar, 2017. "Price Discovery in Some Primary Commodity Markets in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1817-1829.
    9. Isita Mukherjee & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "The volatility of returns from commodity futures: evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Bhabani Sankar Rout & Nupur Moni Das & K. Chandrasekhara Rao, 2019. "Volatility Spillover Effect in Commodity Derivatives Market: Empirical Evidence Through Generalized Impulse Response Function," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 374-396, December.
    11. Mala Dutt & Sanjay Sehgal, 2018. "Domestic and International Information Linkages between Gold Spot and Futures Markets: An Empirical Study for India," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, June.

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