Climate resilience and varietal choice: a path analytic model for rice in Bangladesh

Purpose - Rice is the primary staple crop in South Asia and is cultivated mainly on lowland ecosystems usually fed by the monsoon. With increasing climatic volatility, exclusively rain-fed rice paddies have experienced a triple threat in droughts, floods and salinity. This study investigates the linkages of these abiotic stresses on yield and subsequent farmer decisions on varietal choice. Design/methodology/approach - A path analytic model is conceptualized where the relationship between yield (conditional on abiotic stresses) and the varietal choice decision is mediated by adaptation motive (latent construct) and market exposure (observed construct). The path model is validated using 2,523 observations from Bangladesh farmers to obtain parameter estimates for direct effects and mediated effects indicated above. Findings - Findings reveal that drought and flood impacts, in contrast to salinity impacts, are influential to both yield and varietal choice. The adaptation motive, however, is clear only in the case of salinity. Time preference of farmers and previous exposure to climate shocks predict adaptation motive substantively. The study reveals that market exposure is also a significant mediator of varietal choice in addition to the mediating effect of adaptation. Research limitations/implications - The study adopts a path analytic model which is able to capture direct, indirect and mediated effects between exogenous factors and varietal choice decision. While the models provide conclusive statistical evidence to the above hypotheses, within-area variations of behavior may not be captured adequately by the method. Originality/value - Analyzing the complexity of varietal decision-making choice using a path analytical model is a novel contribution to the literature. The application itself is unique to the context applied. The findings complement the literature on varietal adoption in the context of climate resilient paddy systems.