Deterrence effects, socio-economic development, police revenge and homicides in Rio de Janeiro

Purpose - Due to the high levels of crime in Rio de Janeiro, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first one is to analyze the effects of deterrence variables (such as the adoption of Pacifying Police Units (UPPs) and incarcerations) on violence in the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro, as well as to verify the existence of “revenge effect.” The second is to analyze the effects of socio-economic development on violence, using development indicators. Design/methodology/approach - Besides usual OLS method for panel data analysis, the study makes use of dynamic panel data framework through D-GMM and S-GMM. The estimates are based on a sample of 82 municipalities of Rio de Janeiro, and the period runs from 2003 to 2013. As dependent variables, the estimates use violent deaths (i.e. aggregation of intentional homicides and armed robberies followed by death) and homicides resulting from opposition to police intervention (i.e. civilians killed as a result of police actions against criminals – “opposition deaths”). Findings - The estimates indicate that incarceration presents marginal capacity to reduce violence. Regarding the findings for the adoption of UPPs, the evidence suggests that this project increased violence and, therefore, the possibility of displacement of violence to other regions of the State. With respect to the effect of police deaths over violence, the results are unprecedented and suggest the existence of a “revenge effect.” Besides, the study points to the importance of socio-economic development to reduce violence. Originality/value - Once the study analyzes the effects of incarceration and UPPs, it contributes to the literature by providing new evidence on the ability of anti-crime policies of reducing (or not) violence. In addition, when considering the death of policemen in the estimates, the study shows an unprecedented way, the effect that these deaths cause over violence (the so-called “revenge effect”). Moreover, the study considers the impacts of the development of employment and income, health and education on violence. When analyzing these development indicators, the study contributes with the literature that looks for non-police alternatives to control crime.