Deciphering the nexus of climate change, agriculture, and migration: perspectives from African and Asian realms

Purpose - The present research attempts to delve into the climate-agriculture-migration nexus to ascertain whether the variation in agriculture output due to climatic factors has a significant influence on the emigration flows from the Asian and African continents. Design/methodology/approach - The present study draws upon a rich panel of data from 27 countries (14 African and 13 Asian) between 1995 and 2020. The first stage least square, OLS and 2SLS techniques have been employed to examine the relationships between climatic factors and international migration, climatic factors and agriculture output, and agriculture output and international migration, respectively. Findings - The results exhibit a positive relationship between temperature and international migration. The influence of temperature on agriculture output is negative but insignificant while precipitation promotes agriculture output. In addition, agriculture output negatively influences international migration, and these findings establish a climate-agriculture-migration relationship. Practical implications - To counteract the climate-agriculture-migration nexus, it is incumbent upon governments to conduct extensive field trials and data collection exercises to assess the influence of climate in separate agro-ecological zones and devise policies accordingly. Originality/value - The literature concerning the interrelationship between climatic factors, agriculture and migration is scarce and what is available pertains to different contexts. Moreover, no studies are based on Asia and Africa; the continents have a high dependence on agriculture and outmigration rates, and the present research covers this important gap in the literature.