Income shocks, informal insurance mechanisms, and household consumption expenditure

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of income shocks on household real consumption expenditure, taking into account the various informal coping strategies adopted by the households. Using Nigerian Household Panel Survey data for the year 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 respectively, and probit model estimation approach, the results suggest that idiosyncratic shocks have effect on household consumption expenditure and the informal insurance strategies play only limited roles in providing the needed insurance to households in the face of shocks. Also, the effect of shocks vary according to households characteristics, which depends on whether the household is headed by male or female and urban or rural dweller. Design/methodology/approach - This paper explores the fixed effects and probit model estimation approach to examine the relationship between the effect of covariate and self-reported idiosyncratic shocks on household welfare. The study examines the effectiveness of the various informal coping measures adopted by households against shocks. Findings - The results suggest that idiosyncratic shocks have been found to have little effect on real consumption expenditure and the informal insurance strategies play only limited roles in providing the much needed insurance to households in the face of shocks. Also, the effect of shocks vary according to households characteristics, whether the household is headed by male or female and urban or rural dweller is important. Originality/value - The novelty of this essay is to investigate the relationship between variation in self-reported shocks to income across households and real consumption expenditure in Nigeria – a poor, risk-prone country – considering also, the ease with which households adopt the various risk-coping strategies, which help them in smoothing consumption over time.