Central budget allocation regime and total factor productivity in Vietnam: a decomposition approach

Purpose - This study explores the effect of local budget retention rate changes (RER) on total factor productivity (TFP) and its components in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach - The study employs a two-system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and data from 2012 to 2019 across all 63 provinces/cities of Vietnam. Findings - The study finds that local budget retention rates significantly influence public investment, affecting scale and allocation efficiency. The reallocation of budgets between regions and from the central government to local levels incurs certain costs, often resulting in economically robust provinces experiencing reductions in their retention rates. Practical implications - Recognizing the challenges of immediate structural budget changes due to cultural and historical factors, the study suggests a more gradual policy approach. It emphasizes the importance of policy predictability, as abrupt reductions in the retention rate lead to higher costs than gradual reductions, thus implementing budget policies with a clearer timeline. This study provides insight into local budget allocation regimes and their impact on productivity in transitioning countries. Originality/value - First, the study provides fresh evidence of the impact of retention rate changes on TFP and its components in Vietnam. Second, the study provides insights into the mechanisms of the nexus of increased budget spending, capital efficiency and, most importantly, attaining improvement in education. We also offer further insights into inefficient budget allocation agents in Vietnam, especially in large cities, which should alert scholars to explore this topic further in the future.