Saving farm subsidies with smart climate interventions: the case of transition to a millet-based agriculture

Purpose - The study attempts to estimate farm subsidies the governments can save by transitioning to a millet-based production system, replacing GHG emission-intensive crops. Design/methodology/approach - It updates a 131 × 131 commodity input–output (IO) table of the year 2015–16 into 2021–22 using the RAS procedure and simulates the economy-wide impacts of replacing rice and wheat with pearl millet and sorghum using consumption and production approaches. It then quantifies fertilizer, electricity and credit subsidy expenses the government can save through this intervention. It also estimates the potential reduction in GHG emissions that the transition could bring about. India is taken as a case. Findings - Results show pearl millet expansion brings greater benefits to the government. It is estimated that when households return to their pearl millet consumption rates that prevailed in the early-reform period, this could save the Indian government Rs. 622 crores (USD 75 m). The savings shall be reinvested in agriculture to finance climate adaptation/mitigation efforts, contributing to a sustainable food system. Net GHG emissions also decline by 3.3–3.6 MMT CO2e. Practical implications - Indian government has been actively aiming to bring down paddy areas since 2013–14 through the Crop Diversification Program and promoting millets (and pulses and oilseeds) on these farms. The prime reason is to check rapidly declining groundwater irrigation in Green Revolution states. Regulations in the past in these states have not brought the intended results. Meanwhile, electricity and fertilizers are heavily subsidized for agriculture. A slight shift in the cropping system can help conserve these resources. Meanwhile, GHG emissions could also be brought down and subsidies could well be saved. The results of the study indicate the same. Social implications - A less warm society is what governments and nongovernment organizations across the world are aiming for at present. Financial implications affect actions against climate change to a greater extent, apart from technological innovations. The effects of policy strategies discussed in the study, taking a large country as a case, when implemented appropriately around the regions, could help move a step closer to action against climate change. Originality/value - The paper addresses a key but rarely explored research issue – that how a climate-sensitive crop choice will help reduce the government’s fiscal burden to finance climate adaption/mitigation. It also offers a mechanism to estimate the benefits within an economy-wide framework.