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The impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity, and volatility in agricultural commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Steffen Volkenand
  • Guenther Filler
  • Martin Odening

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity and price volatility in agricultural futures markets on an intraday basis. The authors examine whether order imbalance is more powerful to explain variations in asset prices compared to other indicators of trading activity, particularly trading volume. Design/methodology/approach - Using Chicago Mercantile Exchange best bid best offer data, the impact of order imbalance is analyzed via regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for corn, wheat, soy, live cattle and lean hogs in March 2008 and March 2016. Findings - Results confirm the positive relation between order imbalance and returns as well as between order imbalance and price volatility as suggested by market microstructure models. Order imbalance, however, does not generally outperform trading volume as an explanatory variable. Practical implications - For some contracts, returns can be predicted using lagged order imbalance. This offers the opportunity to derive profitable trading strategies. Originality/value - This paper is one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between order imbalance and returns, liquidity and volatility for agricultural commodity futures on an intraday basis, accounting for the increased trading volume and for the high speed at which new information enters the market in an electronic trading environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Volkenand & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2018. "The impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity, and volatility in agricultural commodity markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 78(5), pages 571-591, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:afr-10-2017-0099
    DOI: 10.1108/AFR-10-2017-0099
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Miao Li & Tao Xiong & Ziran Li, 2023. "A tale of two contracts: Examining the behavior of bid–ask spreads of corn futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 792-806, June.

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