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External Shocks and Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuation: A SVEC Model based proposal for Argentina’s Economy

Author

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  • Luis N. Lanteri

    (Economista senior, Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA). Buenos Aires, Argentina.)

Abstract

One of the issues of macroeconomic analysis in recent years has been trying to empirically identify the factors causing fluctuations in economic aggregates. This work investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations using a structural VEC approach and quarterly data for Argentina’s economy, covering the period 1980:1-2009:1. To this effect, the paper imposes short and long run restrictions to the SVEC model, and identifies four structural shocks: term of trade, aggregate supply, aggregate demand and nominal prices. The results show that terms of trade shocks have a positive effect on real GDP, and that the main sources of output fluctuations are aggregate supply shocks. Further, external price shocks and aggregate demand shocks would be, in principle, the most important ones to explain real exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis N. Lanteri, 2011. "External Shocks and Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuation: A SVEC Model based proposal for Argentina’s Economy," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 113-144, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:113-144
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    domestic and external shocks; macroeconomic fluctuations; SVEC models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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