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Análisis coyuntural y prospectivo de la industria maquiladora de exportación mexicana

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Javier Trívez Bielsa

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas,Universidad de Zaragoza.Gran Vía)

  • ÁngelMauricio Reyes Terrón

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas,Universidad de Zaragoza.Gran Vía)

  • Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordeman

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas,Universidad de Zaragoza.Gran Vía)

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyze the current situation and perspectives, both at the short run andmiddle run, of theMexican exportationmaquiladora industry. It is to combine quantitative economic conjuncture analysis with its principal components, that is, the empiric base (statistical information in monthly time series, in this case Mexican aggregated value of exports by maquila services in total national and regional levels in Mexico) and the quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). For this purpose we present a methodological proposal thatmodels the time series through ARIMAmodels with outliers and calendar effects, and next we use a reducedmodel-based procedure for the signal extraction of these time series. The trend cycle component is the appropriate way to analyze its underlying evolution. Using the concepts of underlying growth and inertia,we can extract themain conclusions for the current situation of the Mexican maquila sector, including the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Javier Trívez Bielsa & ÁngelMauricio Reyes Terrón & Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordeman, 2008. "Análisis coyuntural y prospectivo de la industria maquiladora de exportación mexicana," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 63-99, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:17:y:2008:i:1:p:63-99
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conjunctural analysis; signal extraction; underlying growth; ARIMA models; forecast.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L69 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other

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