Modalidades de reproducción y determinantes del crecimiento de la manufactura en México

The ongoing global recomposition of production requires examining the current state of the industry in Mexico. This paper conducts a critical assessment of the manufacturing sector and its subsectors based on the analysis of the determinants of growth and its modes of reproduction in the neoliberal period, both on the supply and demand sides and from a long-term structural perspective that spans from 1970 to 2018. Results show that the reproduction styles in manufacturing impose structural limitations for vigorous and sustained growth. From the production side, the perverse combination of restrained productive capacities, the low productivity pace, and a chronic insufficiency for labor force absorption have slowed down growth. As for demand, the advantages of its export tendencies, concentrated in a handful of industries, are counterbalanced by the high external dependence, thus the battered internal demand prevails as a decisive factor of growth. So, the fracture of national production chains and the large share of imported inputs in domestic supply significantly have restricted the stimulus of external relations for growth. The balance of four decades of neoliberalism shows that establishing a new industrial policy and taking advantage of the supposed opportunities that are opening up to the country—due to the conjunction of favorable geographic and demographic conditions, its trade agreement with North America, political stability, and a favorable macroeconomic environment—will not be enough. To surmount the restrictions on growth, it is necessary to overcome the neoliberal self of the Mexican economy and promote far-reaching structural transformations toward a new development strategy with a productive base.