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Determinantes, tamaño y evolución del mercado interno en México y sus implicaciones macroeconómicas para el crecimiento económico, 1970-2017

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  • Martínez Hernández, Francisco A.

    (Universidad Anáhuac)

  • Contreras Cleofas, Omar

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract

This document investigates determinants, size and evolution of the domestic market (DM) in Mexico from 1970 to 2017. We use the System of National Accounts of INEGI to propose a new methodology for the estimation of the DM. Subsequently, we analyze the macroeconomic implications associated with the evolution of the DM’s components from a demand side approach. Firstly, we find that the high import coefficients have tended to reduce the main components of the DM. Secondly, from the perspective of income generation, we find econometric evidence that suggests that the total wage bill (TWB) Granger-causes productivity at the macroeconomic level, therefore, an excessive growth of the gross operating surplus (GOS) has tended to shrink the potential of the DM through the reduction of the TWB in the national income. Finally, we find econometric evidence that there was a crowding-in effect of public spending and investment towards private investment in the Mexican economy during the studied period.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez Hernández, Francisco A. & Contreras Cleofas, Omar, 2020. "Determinantes, tamaño y evolución del mercado interno en México y sus implicaciones macroeconómicas para el crecimiento económico, 1970-2017," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 133-169, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:87:y:2020:i:345:p:133-169
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v87i345.940
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinants and evolution of the domestic market; excessive growth of the GOS; contraction of the domestic market; crowding-in effect; error correction models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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