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El costo del desempleo medido en producto Una revisión empírica de la ley de Okun para México

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  • Chavarín Rodríguez, Rubén

    (CUCEA-INESER, Universidad de Guadalajara)

Abstract

In some countries, the conventional Okun’s Law estimates do not show explicative results about the effects of unemployment on output, even if some theoretical extensions on models are included. Barreto and Howland (1993) have pointed out that, under certain conditions, applying the reverse regression on the conventional models could have some advantages. In particular, it allows a more appropriate ( from a stastical perspective) estimation about the influence of the unemployment on output and, to obtain more accurate values for the Okun’s Law. This paper develops a empirical review for these topics in the Mexican case, from the base of the root methodology created by Perron (1989) for series with one structural break.// En algunos países las estimaciones tradicionales de la ley de Okun no aportan resultados explicativos de los efectos que el desempleo ocasiona en el producto interno bruto, aun incluyendo ciertas extensiones teóricas a los modelos. Barreto y Howland (1993) han señalado que, en ciertas condiciones, aplicar la regresión inversa en los modelos tradicionales tienen dos ventajas: permite un cálculo más correcto, desde el punto de vista estadístico, de la influencia que el desempleo tiene en el producto y, sobre todo, permite obtener valores más plausibles del valor de la ley. En este trabajo se hace una revisión empírica de estos temas para el caso de México, a partir de pruebas de raíces unitarias para series con un rompimiento estructural, según la metodología de Perron (1989).

Suggested Citation

  • Chavarín Rodríguez, Rubén, 2001. "El costo del desempleo medido en producto Una revisión empírica de la ley de Okun para México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(270), pages 209-231, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:209-231
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