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Can loss aversion shed light on the deflation puzzle?

Author

Listed:
  • Jenny N. Lye

    (University of Melbourne, Australia)

  • Ian M. McDonald

    (University of Melbourne, Australia)

Abstract

This paper argues that the application of loss aversion to wage determination can explain the deflation puzzle: the failure of persistently high unemployment to exert a persistent downward impact on the rate of inflation in money wages. This is an improvement on other theories of the deflation puzzle which simply assume downward wage rigidity, namely the hysteresis theory, the lubrication theory and the efficiency wage theory. The paper presents estimates that support the loss-aversion explanation of the deflation puzzle for both the US and Australia. Furthermore, our estimation approach gives a more precise estimate of the potential rate of unemployment than does the natural rate approach and reveals potential rates of unemployment for the US and Australia at the end of 2017 of about 4 per cent and 3.3 per cent respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenny N. Lye & Ian M. McDonald, 2021. "Can loss aversion shed light on the deflation puzzle?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 11-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p11-42
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ian M. McDonald, 2021. "A Keynesian model of aggregate demand in the long‐run," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 442-459, July.
    2. Stephen Bell & Michael Keating, 2019. "Low Wage Growth: Why It Matters and How to Fix It," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(4), pages 377-392, December.
    3. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Jiao Wang, 2023. "The Australian Economy in 2022–23: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates in a Post‐COVID‐19 World," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(1), pages 5-19, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; inflation; Phillips curve; hysteresis; loss aversion; behavioural macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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