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Using non-linear estimation strategies to test an extended version of the Goodwin model on the US economy

Author

Listed:
  • Julio Fernando Costa Santos

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Uberlandia, Brazil)

  • Ricardo Azevedo Araujo

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Uberlandia, Brazil)

Abstract

There is a growing empirical literature that seeks to determine country growth and demand. One possible shortcoming of those studies is their sensitivity to the estimation strategy, which is linked to the time horizon. A profit-led regime has been found to be the most likely outcome when adopting an aggregative approach, while a wage-led regime is the most likely outcome when utilizing a structural estimation. Another potential weakness is that the empirical approaches adopted are mostly linear. To overcome these criticisms, we adopt wavelet analysis, which allows the decomposition of a time series into short- and long-term components, thereby enabling investigation of whether the growth regime switches over time. This paper tests an extended version of the Goodwin model for the US economy using data from 1967 to 2016. The results show that both the growth and demand regimes are sensitive to time and are profit-led in the short term and wage-led in the long term, thereby confirming Blecker's (2016) insight.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Fernando Costa Santos & Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, 2020. "Using non-linear estimation strategies to test an extended version of the Goodwin model on the US economy," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 268-286, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p268-286
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    2. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Andre M. Marques, 2022. "Demand and Distribution in a Dynamic Spatial Panel Model for the United States: Evidence from State-Level Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 05 Oct 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand and growth regimes; wavelet analysis; endogenous cycle; wage-led growth; profit-led growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution

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