IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/elg/rokejn/v7y2019i4p463-485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Thirlwall's law and the terms of trade: a parsimonious extension of the balanceof-payments-constrained growth model

Author

Listed:
  • Esteban Pérez Caldentey

    (Financing for Development Unit, Economic Development Division, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile)

  • Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid

    (UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico)

Abstract

This paper extends the balance-of-payments-constrained (BoPC) growth model and Thirlwall's law to include the terms of trade with and without capital flows. Without capital flows a positive (negative) change in the terms of trade by improving (worsening) export performance can ceteris paribus augment (reduce) the rate of growth of an economy compatible with balance of payments' long-run equilibrium. With the inclusion of capital flows the BoPC dynamics become more complex. Assuming no changes in the real exchange rate and in the import elasticity of demand, an improvement in the terms of trade can increase the level of the external deficit compatible with BoPC growth. This results from the terms-of-trade effects on the purchasing of exports and on foreign-capital inflows. The positive effect of an improvement in the terms of trade may be partially offset by an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an increase in the import elasticity of demand, when the model is extended to allow for such interactions in the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 2019. "Thirlwall's law and the terms of trade: a parsimonious extension of the balanceof-payments-constrained growth model," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 463-485, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:7:y:2019:i:4:p463-485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/roke/7-4/roke.2019.04.04.xml
    Download Restriction: Restricted access
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Passos, Nikolas & Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth models and comparative political economy in Latin America," SocArXiv dfyq4, Center for Open Science.
    2. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 586-598.
    4. Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Lorenzo Nalin, 2022. "Financial Barriers to Structural Change in Developing Economies: A Theoretical Framework," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1004, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Lorenzo Nalin & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2020. "Balance Sheet Effects of a Currency Devaluation: A Stock-Flow Consistent Framework for Mexico?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_980, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance-of-payments constrained growth; Thirlwall's law; terms of trade; capital flows; income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:7:y:2019:i:4:p463-485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Phillip Thompson (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elgaronline.com/roke .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.