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Aumento del nivel del mar en la costa vasca: una aproximación probabilística

Author

Listed:
  • Elisa Sainz de Murieta

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) Grantham Research Institute (LSE))

  • Luis María Abadie

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

  • Ibon Galarraga

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

Abstract

Due to climate change, sea-level rise poses a major threat to the Basque coast. In this study we assess the average sea-level rise under three emission scenarios in eleven municipalities of the Basque coast. We also estimate two risk measures that describe low-probability, highdamage events. Our results by 2050 show average sea-level increases in 21-29 cm and significantly larger extreme values, ranging between 35 and 45 cm at the 95th percentile and 40-52 cm at the average of 5% worst cases. This information could be very relevant to inform climate change adaptation policies and measures, as it allows managing risk more effectively, in line with the approaches used in financial economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisa Sainz de Murieta & Luis María Abadie & Ibon Galarraga, 2018. "Aumento del nivel del mar en la costa vasca: una aproximación probabilística," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 94(02), pages 324-344.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekz:ekonoz:2018217
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aumento del nivel del mar; basque coast; climate risk; costa vasca; modelización estocástica ; riesgo climático; sea-level rise; stochastic modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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