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Technological progress, human capital, and employment rate: an empirical analysis using P-ARDL models from 1960-2019

Author

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  • Daisy Caroline Nascimento Pereira
  • Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the effects of technological progress, education,and human capital on employment in the short and long run using an econometric ARDLmodel for the period 1960-2019 across developed and developing countries. The hypothesiswas that technological progress destroys jobs at a faster rate than investments in educationand human capital can create. In the short run, the results confirmed the hypothesis thattechnological progress destroys relatively more jobs. However, in the long run, the resultsshowed that the coefficients for education and human capital in developing countries out-weighed those for technological progress, thus rejecting the hypothesis for this group ofcountries in the long run. For developed countries, coefficients for technological progressand investments in human capital were positive and significant. JEL Classification: E24; J24; O33.

Suggested Citation

  • Daisy Caroline Nascimento Pereira & Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva, 2025. "Technological progress, human capital, and employment rate: an empirical analysis using P-ARDL models from 1960-2019," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 45(1), pages 86-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:45:y:2025:i:1:p:86-103:id:2492
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological Progress; Human Capital; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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