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Business cycles fluctuations and commodities prices: evidence for Brazil

Author

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  • André Moreira Cunha
  • Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis
  • Priscila Linck

Abstract

This paper aims at evaluating macroeconomic impacts of commodities prices’ shocks on the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. The econometric methodologies employed allowed to identify three regimes of high and three of low behavior in those prices, all of them presenting the expected effects of stimulating the level of activities, at times when external price shocks are favorable; and the reverse, when price shocks were negative. The decomposition exercises made it possible to isolate the effects of commodities shocks from the other potential determinants of the level of activities. Thus, it was possible to verify that in the most recent upward cycle, starting in 2016, the recovery in commodities prices has not been able to compensate for the other domestic (or external) factors that, for the moment, block a more robust economic recovery. JEL Classification: O11; F44; E32; F63.

Suggested Citation

  • André Moreira Cunha & Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis & Priscila Linck, 2021. "Business cycles fluctuations and commodities prices: evidence for Brazil," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 41(3), pages 466-486.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:41:y:2021:i:3:p:466-486:id:2207
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities prices; business cycles; Brazilian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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