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China: long-run economic growth

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  • Flávio Vilela Vieira

Abstract

The paper aims to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long run growth. The econometric analysis suggests the exchange rate as the most important variable in explaining China´s economic growth and in a different model specification using growth rates of exports instead of trade openness, the exchange rate remains as the main variable but export performance has almost the same relevance. Exchange rate policy seems to be a direct road to explain economic growth in China and there is no clear sign that China will increase exchange rate flexibility in the same pattern and pace suggested by most trade partners, which cannot be criticized based on China´s own interest in sustaining its export performance and economic growth. JEL Classification: O40; O53; C22.

Suggested Citation

  • Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2006. "China: long-run economic growth," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 26(3), pages 401-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:26:y:2006:i:3:p:401-424:id:607
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    File URL: https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/607/605
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; long-run economic growth; time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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