IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ege/journl/v16y2016i4p655-671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ithal Ham Petrol Fiyatlari ve Doviz Kuru Arasindaki Esbutunlesme ve Oynaklik Yayilma Etkisinin Incelenmesi: Turkiye Ornegi

Author

Listed:
  • Alper YILMAZ

    (Adnan Menderes Universitesi)

  • Huseyin ALTAY

    (Bilecik Seyh Edebali Universitesi)

Abstract

Bu calismanin amaci Turkiye’de doviz kurundaki hareketlerin ham petrol fiyatlarindan kisa ve uzun donemde nasil etkilendigini incelemektir. Bu kapsamda 1985-2015 donemine ait aylik ham petrol fiyatlari ve doviz kuru verileri kullanilmistir. Calismada oncelikle ARDL esbutunlesme yaklasimiyla seriler arasindaki uzun ve kisa donem iliskiler analiz edilmis ve seriler arasinda es butunlesme iliskisi tespit edilmistir. Ikinci adimdaki esbutunlesme uzun donem analizine gore ham petrol fiyatlarinin kur oynakligi uzerindeki etkisi negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamli bulunmustur. Kisa donem analizinde, hata duzeltme teriminin katsayisi istatistiki acidan anlamli ve negatif oldugu gorulmustur. Dolayisiyla degiskenler arasinda ortaya cikan sapmalarin uzun donem denge duzeyine yakinsamakta oldugu soylenebilir. Calismada son olarak Varyansta nedensellik testi kullanilarak seriler arasindaki nedensellik iliskisi incelenmis ve ham petrol fiyatlarindan doviz kurlarina dogru bir oynaklik yayilma etkisinin varligi tespit edilmistir.

Suggested Citation

  • Alper YILMAZ & Huseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Ithal Ham Petrol Fiyatlari ve Doviz Kuru Arasindaki Esbutunlesme ve Oynaklik Yayilma Etkisinin Incelenmesi: Turkiye Ornegi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 655-671.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:16:y2016:i:4:p:655-671
    DOI: 10.21121/eab.2016.477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.onlinedergi.com/MakaleDosyalari/51/PDF2016_4_7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.onlinedergi.com/eab/arsiv/arsivDetay.aspx?yil=2016&peryot=4
    File Function: Website of the journal issue
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21121/eab.2016.477?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Cem Aysoy & Ercan Balaban, 1996. "The Term Structure of Volatility in the Turkish Foreign Exchange : Implications for Option Pricing and Hedging Decisions," Discussion Papers 9613, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    6. Duygu AYHAN, 2006. "Döviz kuru rejimlerinin kur oynaklığı üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 21(245), pages 64-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Equity Price Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro: A Note," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 113-128, June.
    3. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, October.
    4. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    6. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gormus, N. Alper & Soytas, Uğur, 2016. "Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-175.
    7. Fujii, Eiji, 2005. "Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 315-342, October.
    8. Alper Gormus & Ugur Soytas, 2023. "Financial Sector Troubles and Energy Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 357-363, March.
    9. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Movements in international bond markets: The role of oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-58.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gormus, Alper & Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2018. "High-yield bond and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 101-110.
    12. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
    13. Gulnur Muradoglu & Hakan Berument & Kivilcim Metin, 1999. "Financial Crisis and Changes in Determinants of Risk and Return: An Empirical Investigation of an Emerging Market (ISE)," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(4), pages 223-252, December.
    14. Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
    15. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    16. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A Simple Test for Causality in Volatility," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-5, March.
    17. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1995. "Rendements boursiers et inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 455-480, décembre.
    18. Sabur Mollah & Asma Mobarek, 2009. "Market volatility across countries – evidence from international markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 257-274, October.
    19. Dongweí Su, 2003. "Risk, Return and Regulation in Chinese Stock Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Chinese Stock Markets A Research Handbook, chapter 3, pages 75-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Stentoft, Lars, 2005. "Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 576-611, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:16:y2016:i:4:p:655-671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Baris Gök (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiegetr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.