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La Ciclicidad de la Política Fiscal en Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Darwin Ugarte

    (Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas)

Abstract

El presente trabajo analiza el desempeño de la política fiscal en Bolivia para el periodo 2003-2015. Para ello se calcula el balance fiscal estructural y el impulso fiscal con el objeto de caracterizar la naturaleza expansiva o contractiva de la misma y determinar si la política fiscal en los últimos años ha sido pro-cíclica o contracíclica a la evolución del ciclo económico. Los resultados sugieren que la política fiscal en Bolivia fue contractiva en los años 2003 al 2008 y expansiva en el periodo 2009-2015. Asimismo, comparando con el ciclo de la economía se tiene que la política fiscal fue contra-cíclica del 2003 al 2012, pro-cíclica los años 2013, 2014 y contra-cíclica el 2015. Estos resultados se mantienen si se utiliza información del SPNF o del TGN, diferentes clasificaciones de las cuentas fiscales o si se aproxima el balance fiscal no hidrocarburífero. Asimismo se destaca la heterodoxia de la política fiscal en Bolivia y se distingue a la inversión pública como un instrumento de política fiscal contra-cíclica.

Suggested Citation

  • Darwin Ugarte, 2016. "La Ciclicidad de la Política Fiscal en Bolivia," Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana, Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas de Bolivia, vol. 1(2), pages 7-53, Julio.
    • Handle: RePEc:efp:journl:v:1:y:2015:i:2:p:7-53
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance Fiscal Estructural; Impulso Fiscal; Ciclicidad de la Política Fiscal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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