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Ekonomska politika u kontekstu Europske Unije - novi model vladinih politika kao pretpostavka održivog ekonomskog rasta

Author

Listed:
  • Damir Novotny

    (T&MC d.o.o., Zagreb)

Abstract

Dugogodišnje usporavanje ekonomskih aktivnosti u Hrvatskoj te izostanak odgovarajucih antirecesijskih vladinih politika, stvara pretpostavke za ulazak hrvatske ekonomije u ciklus dugogodišnje stagnacije. Duboke strukturne neravnoteže glavni su uzroci ovog trenda. Ekonomija pokušava kroz slobodni pad pronaci novu ravnotežu. Nova ce se ravnoteža (dno recesijskog ciklusa) ostvariti vjerojatno potkraj 2013. godini, ali na znatno nižoj razini zaposlenosti i ekonomskih aktivnosti u odnosu na razdoblje prije 2008. godine. Ulazak u punopravno clanstvo EU u srpnju 2013. godine, zbog svojih konvergencijskih ucinaka, donijet ce odgovarajuce egzogene impulse ekonomskom oporavku. Medutim, zbog dubine strukturnih problema, egzogeni ucinci na ekonomski rast i zapošljavanje bit ce manji od ocekivanih. Za osiguravanje dugorocno održivog ekonomskog rasta nužno je oblikovanje potpuno novog pristupa vodenju ekonomske politike i provodenje strukturnih reformi. Najnovija istraživanja (Alesina, A, 2012) pokazuju da je potrebno kombinirati drasticna snižavanja državne potrošnje s umjerenim sni- žavanjem poreznog opterecenja. Hrvatska vlada u tom smislu mora provesti reforme državne uprave radi stvaranja pretpostavki za sni- žavanje rashoda državnog proracuna i promjena strukture javne potrošnje. Istovremeno su potrebne promjene u poreznom sustavu. Osim provodenja reformi u državnoj upravi i nastavka privatizacije državnih poduzeca, nužne su promjene smjera i arhitekture fiskalnih politika kojima bi se djelovalo na oporavak domace potražnje. Bez nove industrijske politike i kreiranje instrumentarija fiskalnih poticaja kojima bi se djelovalo na strani ponude, odnosno investicija privatnih poduzeca u preradivackoj industriji i naprednim uslugama radi povecavanja konkurentske sposobnosti, nece biti moguce stvoriti uvjete za pokretanje ciklusa održivog ekonomskog rasta i zapošljavanja.

Suggested Citation

  • Damir Novotny, 2013. "Ekonomska politika u kontekstu Europske Unije - novi model vladinih politika kao pretpostavka održivog ekonomskog rasta," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 20(1), pages 65-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:65-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    strukturne reforme; fisklana konsolidacija; industrijske politike; ekonomski rast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • L53 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Enterprise Policy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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