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On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • A.F. Darrat

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Louisiana Tech University)

  • Y.K. Al-Yousif

    (Department of Economics, The United Arab Emirates University)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the relationship between population growth and economic growth in many developing countries. Our results from the Johansen cointegration test and error-correction models are supportive of Simon's (1989) theory that population growth and economic growth exhibit a potent long-run (rather than a short-run) relationship across countries. The results further suggest that population expansion positively contributes to economic development in the majority of the countries examined. However, causality inferences are not uniform across countries and the results appear sensitive to the particular stage of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • A.F. Darrat & Y.K. Al-Yousif, 1999. "On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 301-313, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:25:y:1999:i:3:p:301-313
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    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume25/V25N3P301_313.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Democracy and economic growth: the role of intelligence in cross-country regressions," MPRA Paper 65716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Apr 2015.
    2. repec:rre:publsh:v:38:y:2008:i:3:p:289-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wako, Hassen, 2012. "Demographic changes and economic development: Application of the vector error correction model (VECM) to the case of Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 72618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    5. Marek Ćwiklicki & Łukasz Jabłoński & Riccardo Sartori & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2019. "The relationship between the economic development of nations and the adoption of green initiatives by companies: a statistical study on 105 countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 339-361, January.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 175-201, February.
    7. Revell, Brian J., 2015. "One Man’s Meat…. 2050? Ruminations on future meat demand in the context of global warming," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204205, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    9. ČERMÁKOVÁ Klára & MEC Michal, 2024. "Population Growth and GDP Per Capita Growth: Identifying the Causal Variable in 30 African Countries," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    10. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-477 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
    13. Alvarez-Dias, Marcos & D'Hombres, Beatrice & Ghisetti, Claudia & Pontarollo, Nicola & Dijkstra, Lewis, 2018. "The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    14. Jorge Garza-Rodriguez & Cecilia I. Andrade-Velasco & Karen D. Martinez-Silva & Francisco D. Renteria-Rodriguez & Pedro A. Vallejo-Castillo, 2016. "The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 97-107.
    15. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test," Working Papers 201431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2018. "Is population beneficial to economic growth? An empirical study of China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 209-225, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Developing Countries; Development; Economic Growth; Growth; Population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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