Prognosis of the development of artificial kidneys based upon patent literature

This paper offers a fundamental methodological approach to the classifying and sorting of information oriented to the future development of renal function replacement as disclosed in patent specifications. Arranged information items are subjected to analyses and generalizations in sequential small steps down to the final prognostic consideration. Laborious and time-consuming as the process of evaluation may be, such analyses can bring very valuable studies covering the development of the field under consideration. The achieved study comes very close to the outline of future development of means for renal function replacement, as set forth by one of the world's best specialists in the field of failing kidney replacement, a pioneer in this branch and designer of the first successful artificial kidney J.W. Kolff. In an historical review the sequence of steps of patent literature evaluation follows the development of renal function replacement means as described by Hoeltzenbein.