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The transfer of employment structure: Export expansion and the rise of lower-middle-skill occupations in China

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  • Tan, Weishan
  • Shen, Guangjun
  • Zhou, Guangsu

Abstract

Job polarization is common in advanced countries due to routine-biased technological changes and globalization. In developing countries, however, the employment structure is left unexplored. This research finds that China has witnessed a reverse trend in the employment structure since 2000. In particular, job counter-polarization was seen due to the disproportionate rise in lower-middle-skill occupations. Further study provides evidence that export expansion increases the employment share of lower-middle-skill occupations. Mechanism analysis shows that export expansion increases routine-tasks intensive occupations, which are also lower-middle-skill occupations. This paper provides new insights into occupational structure based on typical facts in China and examines the hypotheses of routine-biased technological change and globalization from a novel perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan, Weishan & Shen, Guangjun & Zhou, Guangsu, 2025. "The transfer of employment structure: Export expansion and the rise of lower-middle-skill occupations in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:189:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106932
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment structure; Export; Lower-middle-skill occupations; Routine task;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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