Away from over-populated development: Estimating urban carrying capacity with an integrated perspective of transportation and urban planning

Urban Carrying Capacity (UCC) is one of the most critical and essential attributes for urban planning. This study proposes a novel framework to estimate UCC from an integrated perspective of transportation and urban planning, which has never been discussed in the current body of UCC literature. By incorporating transportation planning (including O-D matrix estimation and traffic assignment) and urban planning (e.g., land use plan), the authority concerned can prevent the area from being overdeveloped, which may lead to unwanted situations such as traffic congestion and crowded streets that are the signs of low life quality and low urban efficiency. A case study for Shezidao, an area with a land development/readjustment plan in Taipei, is presented in this paper, and several scenario analyses are also carried out. This study derives several findings that support urban policymaking. For example, the results of the scenario analysis show that higher public transportation usage can effectively increase UCC. Additionally, this study suggests that reducing peak-hour trip generation rates (by encouraging corporates to have flexible work time/mode) can help increase UCC by decreasing peak traffic volume on the road. With a focus on transportation, the proposed framework can serve as a helpful tool to evaluate land development projects, and the result should be considered with UCC estimation methods from other essential aspects.