Policy implications of the transit metropolis project: A quasi-natural experiment from China

The Chinese government has initiated the Transit Metropolis project, aimed at developing a transit-oriented urban transportation system that progressively enhances the utilization of public transit and encourages private car users to shift towards public transit. Using panel data from 221 cities from 2009 to 2018, we employed a multi-period propensity score matching-differences in differences approach to examine the effects of this project on public transit usage and private car ownership. We utilized the status of a city as a coastal city as an instrumental variable for the Transit Metropolis project to conduct an endogeneity test, ultimately finding no evidence of endogeneity. Even when accounting for competitive policies such as the low-carbon city policy, the results remained consistent, confirming the robustness. The findings suggest that the project has effectively increased public transit use without significantly decreasing private car ownership. However, these impacts vary geographically. Specifically, in Eastern region of China, the project significantly enhanced public transit usage, whereas no comparable significant effect was observed in the Central & Western regions. Regarding private car ownership, the project did not have significant effects in either the Eastern, or the Central & Western regions. These insights provide a reference for further implementing Public Transit Priority policies, help enhance the competitiveness of public transit, and promote the development of transit-oriented urban transportation structures.