IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v20y1986i5p391-402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic forecasting of urban shopping travel demand

Author

Listed:
  • Oppenheim, Norbert

Abstract

A time-dependent model for commercial activity location and travel demand is developed based on the assumptions that instantaneous interzonal shopping travel demand can be described by a gravity formulation, whereas the incremental individual zonal retail space allocations are such that they maximize the aggregate, net resulting profit from retail sales. Over time, link travel costs are updated as a function of the current link volumes, whereas commercial space development costs are updated as a function of current zonal activity levels. Constraints on commercial space allocation are at the individual zonal level, as well as at the aggregate level of the overall area. The objective function for the corresponding mathematical program is then linearized, and the model programmed for implementation using a linear programming routine. The results of several simulations illustrate the dynamic impacts various urban development policies have on commercial activity location. In particular, periodic oscillations in zonal activity levels, as well as sudden changes in the spatial pattern of interzonal shopping travel, may appear for certain model parameter values. Several directions for future refinement of the model, including inclusion of economic variables and interaction with other urban activities, are discussed in conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Oppenheim, Norbert, 1986. "Dynamic forecasting of urban shopping travel demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 391-402, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:20:y:1986:i:5:p:391-402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0191-2615(86)90011-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. N Oppenheim, 1991. "Retail Activity Allocation Modeling with Endogenous Retail Prices and Shopping Travel Costs," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(5), pages 731-744, May.
    2. Yim, Youngbin, 1992. "The Effects of Transportation Services On the Scale of Food Retailing," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt52638309, University of California Transportation Center.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:20:y:1986:i:5:p:391-402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.