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Travel outcome and performance: The effect of uncertainty on accessibility

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  • Hall, Randolph W.

Abstract

An accessibility model is a conceptual tool which explains the interdependencies between the transportation infrastructure and human activities. Traditionally, theorists have based their accessibility models upon deterministic approximations. However, uncertainty in itself can affect whether an activity is accessible, and affect how one measures accessibility. In the first section of this paper, it is shown that travel time randomness interacts with the scheduling of human activities to define the region which is accessible to a traveler. In the second section, a problem is considered where a traveler must search among opportunities to locate a certain activity he desires. It is found that there exists an optimal cluster size which minimizes travel cost, the size being a decreasing function of the probability of locating the activity at any single opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Randolph W., 1983. "Travel outcome and performance: The effect of uncertainty on accessibility," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 275-290, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:17:y:1983:i:4:p:275-290
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yuli & Max Shen, Zuo-Jun & Song, Shiji, 2017. "Lagrangian relaxation for the reliable shortest path problem with correlated link travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 501-521.
    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    3. Wu, Xing & (Marco) Nie, Yu, 2011. "Modeling heterogeneous risk-taking behavior in route choice: A stochastic dominance approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 896-915, November.
    4. Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Sumalee, Agachai, 2008. "Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 890-910, December.
    5. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    6. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Hu Shao & William Lam & Mei Tam, 2006. "A Reliability-Based Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model for Network with Multiple User Classes under Uncertainty in Demand," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 173-204, September.
    8. Eric Kroes & Paul Koster & Stefanie Peer, 2018. "A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1433-1448, September.
    9. Bell, Michael G. H. & Cassir, Chris, 2002. "Risk-averse user equilibrium traffic assignment: an application of game theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 671-681, September.
    10. Tetsuo Kobayashi & Harvey Miller & Walied Othman, 2011. "Analytical methods for error propagation in planar space–time prisms," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 327-354, December.
    11. Zhang, Yu & Tang, Jiafu, 2018. "Itinerary planning with time budget for risk-averse travelers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 288-303.
    12. Lee, Jinhyung & Miller, Harvey J., 2020. "Robust accessibility: Measuring accessibility based on travelers' heterogeneous strategies for managing travel time uncertainty," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Nie, Yu (Marco), 2011. "Multi-class percentile user equilibrium with flow-dependent stochasticity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1641-1659.
    14. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
    15. Eric Kroes & Paul R. Koster & Stefanie Peer, 2014. "A Practical Method to estimate the Benefits of Improved Network Reliability: An Application to Departing Air Passengers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-130/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Vandenbulcke, Grégory & Steenberghen, Thérèse & Thomas, Isabelle, 2009. "Mapping accessibility in Belgium: a tool for land-use and transport planning?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-53.
    17. Shen, Liang & Shao, Hu & Wu, Ting & Fainman, Emily Zhu & Lam, William H.K., 2020. "Finding the reliable shortest path with correlated link travel times in signalized traffic networks under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Wei Nai & Zan Yang & Dan Li & Lu Liu & Yuting Fu & Yuao Guo, 2024. "Urban Day-to-Day Travel and Its Development in an Information Environment: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, March.
    19. Luyu Liu & Adam Porr & Harvey J. Miller, 2023. "Realizable accessibility: evaluating the reliability of public transit accessibility using high-resolution real-time data," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 429-451, July.
    20. Bimpou, Konstantina & Ferguson, Neil S., 2020. "Dynamic accessibility: Incorporating day-to-day travel time reliability into accessibility measurement," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Tan, Zhijia & Yang, Hai & Guo, Renyong, 2014. "Pareto efficiency of reliability-based traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-31.
    22. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Wu, Xing & Dillenburg, John F. & Nelson, Peter C., 2012. "Reliable route guidance: A case study from Chicago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 403-419.
    23. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    24. Qi Zhong & Lixin Miao, 2024. "Reliability-Based Mixed Traffic Equilibrium Problem Under Endogenous Market Penetration of Connected Autonomous Vehicles and Uncertainty in Supply," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 461-505, June.
    25. Khattak, Asad J. & De Palma, André, 1997. "The impact of adverse weather conditions on the propensity to change travel decisions: A survey of Brussels commuters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 181-203, May.

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