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Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of policy in the Netherlands

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  • Weijermars, Wendy
  • Wesemann, Paul

Abstract

Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of road safety policy are useful tools in policy making. This paper illustrates the use of these instruments in policy making in the Netherlands. As part of an interim evaluation of achieving Dutch road safety targets, the numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries were estimated for 2020. From these forecasts, it was concluded that the target for serious road injuries most probably would not be met without additional policy measures. Therefore, the Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment in the Netherlands decided to take additional measures. From an ex-ante evaluation of these measures, it was concluded that also with these additional measures the target for the number of serious road injuries in 2020 will most probably not be met.

Suggested Citation

  • Weijermars, Wendy & Wesemann, Paul, 2013. "Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of policy in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 64-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:64-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2013.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frits Bijleveld & Jacques Commandeur & Phillip Gould & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Model‐based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 265-277, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peck, Dana & Scott Matthews, H. & Fischbeck, Paul & Hendrickson, Chris T., 2015. "Failure rates and data driven policies for vehicle safety inspections in Pennsylvania," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 252-265.
    2. Chang, Yu Sang, 2014. "Comparative analysis of long-term road fatality targets for individual states in the US—An application of experience curve models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 53-69.
    3. Xu, Chengcheng & Liu, Pan & Wang, Wei & Li, Zhibin, 2014. "Identification of freeway crash-prone traffic conditions for traffic flow at different levels of service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 58-70.

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    Keywords

    Road safety;

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