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Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis

Author

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  • Jia, Zhong-Wei
  • Tang, Gong-You
  • Jin, Zhen
  • Dye, Christopher
  • Vlas, Sake J.
  • Li, Xiao-Wen
  • Feng, Dan
  • Fang, Li-Qun
  • Zhao, Wen-Juan
  • Cao, Wu-Chun

Abstract

This paper presents two new theoretical frameworks to investigate the impact of immigration on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. For the basic model, we present new analysis on the existence and stability of equilibria. Then, we use numerical simulations of the model to illustrate the behavior of the system. We apply the model to Canadian reported data on tuberculosis and observe a good agreement between the model prediction and the data. For the extended model, which incorporated the recruitment of the latent and infectious in immigrants to the basic model, we find that the usual threshold condition does not apply and a unique equilibrium exists for all parameter values. This indicates that the disease does not disappear and becomes endemic in host areas. This finding is also supported by numerical simulations with the extended model. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia, Zhong-Wei & Tang, Gong-You & Jin, Zhen & Dye, Christopher & Vlas, Sake J. & Li, Xiao-Wen & Feng, Dan & Fang, Li-Qun & Zhao, Wen-Juan & Cao, Wu-Chun, 2008. "Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 437-448.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:73:y:2008:i:3:p:437-448
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2007.12.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira & Waldman, Eliseu Alves, 2001. "The impact of AIDS, immigration and housing overcrowding on tuberculosis deaths in São Paulo, Brazil, 1994-1998," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1071-1080, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arenas, Abraham J. & González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva Micó, Rafael-J., 2010. "Modeling toxoplasmosis spread in cat populations under vaccination," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 227-237.
    2. Rachel S Y e l k Woodruff & Carla A Winston & Roque Miramontes, 2013. "Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-7, June.
    3. Szu-Chieh Chen & Tzu-Yun Wang & Hsin-Chieh Tsai & Chi-Yun Chen & Tien-Hsuan Lu & Yi-Jun Lin & Shu-Han You & Ying-Fei Yang & Chung-Min Liao, 2022. "Demographic Control Measure Implications of Tuberculosis Infection for Migrant Workers across Taiwan Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Li, Yong & Liu, Xianning & Yuan, Yiyi & Li, Jiang & Wang, Lianwen, 2022. "Global analysis of tuberculosis dynamical model and optimal control strategies based on case data in the United States," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 422(C).
    5. Yu Zhao & Mingtao Li & Sanling Yuan, 2017. "Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.

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