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Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy

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  • García-Olivares, Antonio
  • Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim

Abstract

The coming fossil fuel peak may cause shortages in energy supplies and major disturbances in the global economy. The forecasts for the future of our way of life are very divergent depending on the prediction used for future human access to energy, and they range between collapse and indefinite growth. The LINEX production function, which depends on energy input, was modified, calibrated and used to model the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US economy under several different energy scenarios after the fossil fuel peak. The effects of information and communication technologies and technological innovation after energetic crises have been also modeled. A future renewable mix of global scale will require the use of a major fraction of the reserves of several important minerals. In this context, a future steady-state economy appears to be the best plausible scenario. Some of the implications and challenges derived from this steady-state economy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Olivares, Antonio & Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim, 2015. "Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 587-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pb:p:587-598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013
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