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Adoption dynamics of increasing-return technologies in systemic contexts

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  • Mäkinen, Saku J.
  • Kanniainen, Juho
  • Dedehayir, Ozgur

Abstract

Many systemic, complex technologies have been suggested to exhibit increasing returns to adoption, whereby the initial increase in adoption leads to increasing experience with the technology, which drives technological improvements and use, subsequently leading to further adoption. In addition, in the systemic context, mimetic behavior may lend support to increasing returns as technology adoption is witnessed among other agents in the systemic context. Finally, inter-dependencies in the systemic context also sensitize the adoption behavior to fundamental changes in technology provisioning, and this may lend support for the increasing returns type of dynamics in adoption. Our empirical study examines the dynamics of organizational technology adoption when technology is provisioned by organizations in another sub-system in a systemic context. We hypothesize that innovation, imitation, and technological change effects are present in creating increasing returns in the systemic context. Our empirical setting considers 24 technologies represented by 2282 data points in the computer industry. Our results provide support for our prediction that imitation effects are present in creating increasing returns to adoption. We further discuss the managerial and research implications of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mäkinen, Saku J. & Kanniainen, Juho & Dedehayir, Ozgur, 2013. "Adoption dynamics of increasing-return technologies in systemic contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1140-1146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:6:p:1140-1146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Shet, Sateesh.V. & Poddar, Tanuj & Wamba Samuel, Fosso & Dwivedi, Yogesh K., 2021. "Examining the determinants of successful adoption of data analytics in human resource management – A framework for implications," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 311-326.
    2. Strupeit, Lars, 2017. "An innovation system perspective on the drivers of soft cost reduction for photovoltaic deployment: The case of Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 273-286.
    3. Xu, Zeshui & Ge, Zijing & Wang, Xinxin & Skare, Marinko, 2021. "Bibliometric analysis of technology adoption literature published from 1997 to 2020," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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